努力吧!不管結(jié)果怎樣，經(jīng)歷過，總會有結(jié)果的!今天小編給大家?guī)砹?020年翻譯資格考試(catti)一級筆譯材料，希望能夠幫助到大家，下面小編就和大家分享，來欣賞一下吧。
2020年翻譯資格考試(catti)一級筆譯材料
Conscious Decoupling
A new book explains how managers struggle with changing customer behavior
Think about the companies like Uber and Airbnb that have burst through into public consciousness in the past ten years. While many of them depend on the internet, their success is not down to any particular technological innovation of their own design. Instead, their secret lies in their business model.
Thales Teixeira of the Harvard Business School argues that the principle that underlies a lot of these models is called decoupling. In his book “Unlocking the Customer Value Chain”, he explains how this concept applies across a wide range of industries.
Buying a product will involve at least four stages. First, customers will evaluate the items available; then they will choose one or two; then they will buy them; finally they will consume them. In the traditional model, the first three took place inside a single retail store. Customers would look at the TVs or dishwashers on offer, pick one they liked with a price they could afford, pay at the till and then take the item home or arrange for the retailer to deliver it.
These steps are all part of what Mr Teixeira calls the “customer value chain”. Disrupters have muscled in on some parts of this chain. One example is the practice of “showrooming”. Shoppers enter an electrical store like Best Buy and examine what’s on offer. But instead of purchasing the item in the store, they buy it online. Amazon has even created an app allowing customers to scan a product’s bar code, or take its picture, and discover its online price. The selection of products has been decoupled from their purchase.
Other examples of the decoupling process cited by Mr Teixeira include Zipcar, where driving a car is separated from purchasing and maintaining it; TiVo, where watching TV is delinked from sitting through ads; and Birchbox, where customers are sent samples of beauty products, eliminating the need to visit a store to try them.
This is not, as the author points out, a particularly new idea. Budget airlines like Ryanair have long since decoupled flying from the services and amenities that usually accompanied it. Passengers have to pay separately for the extras, like seat selection and the carrying of baggage. Other airlines have followed suit.
Customer services have for some time been disrupted by a trend with the ugly name of disintermediation, the cutting out of middlemen. Most holidays are now purchased directly, rather than via travel agents; shares are bought via low-commission services, rather than through advisory stockbrokers. New entrants can gain market share if they can offer customers a lower cost or greater convenience. Decoupling doesn’t subtract middlemen but still results in lower costs to the consumer.
The beauty of the decoupling approach is that the only limit to innovation is imagination, rather than technical brilliance. For example, Mr Teixeira cites Trov, a company which allows customers to buy insurance solely for specific items for specific periods of time. If you want to insure your latest smart phone for a two-week holiday, you can do so; and then insure it again for a weekend trip later in the year. The need for insurance is decoupled from the hassle of buying an annual policy.
Suppose that you like a restaurant’s ambience, but not its food. In theory, you could book a table but order the food from elsewhere, paying separately for the service and the cooking. If 3D printers become ubiquitous, design and manufacture could be decoupled, with consumers paying for the digital blueprint.
Mr Teixeira argues that decoupling is a customer-driven phenomenon-bottom-up rather than top-down. Successful businesses will spot how consumer tastes are shifting, and that may involve looking at other industries as well as their own. For example, they can look at the success of Netflix’s subscription-based model; what works for TV programmes may also work for other goods and services. Already, there are companies that will deliver socks or perfume on a regular basis, decoupling this from a trip to the mall.
The challenge for existing managers is that they must worry about more than whether their overall costs are lower than those of their immediate rivals. If a part of their process is inefficient, or inconvenient for consumers, the decouplers may well grab hold of it.
自覺脫鉤
一本新書分析管理者如何努力應(yīng)對不斷變化的客戶行為
優(yōu)步和愛彼迎等公司在過去十年里異軍突起，闖入公眾視野。雖然它們當中有許多都依賴互聯(lián)網(wǎng)，但其成功卻并非源自任何自己創(chuàng)造的特定的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新。相反，它們的秘訣是商業(yè)模式。
哈佛商學(xué)院的塔萊斯·特謝拉認為，這許多商業(yè)模式的背后是同一個原理——“脫鉤”。在《解鎖客戶價值鏈》一書中，他解釋了這一概念如何適用于眾多行業(yè)。
購買一件產(chǎn)品至少涉及四個階段。首先顧客會評估市面上的產(chǎn)品，從中選擇一兩件，然后掏錢購買，最后是使用。在傳統(tǒng)模式中，前三階段發(fā)生在同一家零售店內(nèi)。顧客會查看在售的電視機或洗碗機，選出自己心儀的、價格又合適的產(chǎn)品，到收銀臺付款，然后將商品帶回家或由零售商安排送貨上門。
這些步驟都是特謝拉所說的“客戶價值鏈”的一部分。現(xiàn)在，顛覆者已強勢介入這一鏈條的某些環(huán)節(jié)?！罢箯d”現(xiàn)象的出現(xiàn)便是個例子。購物者走進百思買這樣的電器商店，研究出售的貨品。但他們不在店內(nèi)購買，而是會網(wǎng)購。亞馬遜甚至設(shè)計了一個應(yīng)用，讓客戶掃描產(chǎn)品條形碼或拍個照就能了解產(chǎn)品的網(wǎng)上售價。產(chǎn)品的挑選和購買環(huán)節(jié)脫鉤了。
特謝拉舉出的其他“脫鉤”例子還有：美國汽車共享公司zipcar讓開車和買車及養(yǎng)車脫鉤，數(shù)字錄像機Tivo讓人們在看電視時不必再看插播的廣告，還有提供美容產(chǎn)品在線訂閱服務(wù)的Birchbox，顧客會收到其寄送的美容產(chǎn)品小樣，無需去某家商店試用。
正如特謝拉所指出的，這不是什么特別新潮的概念。像瑞安航空這樣的廉價航空公司早已讓飛行和通常與之捆綁在一起的服務(wù)與便利設(shè)施脫鉤。乘客必須為選座位和行李托運等額外服務(wù)另行付費。其他航空公司已紛紛效仿。
客戶服務(wù)環(huán)節(jié)被去中介化(即去除中間商)這一趨勢顛覆已有一段時日。如今人們大多直接購買度假產(chǎn)品，而不是通過旅行社;從低收費的服務(wù)商購入股票，而不是通過提供咨詢服務(wù)的股票經(jīng)紀商。新進入的商家如果能為客戶提供更低的成本或更大的便利，就能獲得市場份額。脫鉤并不去除中間商，卻仍為消費者降低了成本。
有了脫鉤這種方式，想象力而非技術(shù)水平就成了創(chuàng)新的唯一限制。這就是脫鉤的妙處。特謝拉舉了保險公司Trov的例子，它允許客戶僅在特定時間段為特定項目購買保險。想在度假時為新買的智能手機投保兩周?完全可以。還想等到今年晚些時候某次周末旅行時再為手機投保?也沒問題。保險需求與麻煩的按年投保脫鉤了。
假設(shè)你喜歡某家餐廳的環(huán)境氛圍，但不中意它的食物。理論上講，你可以預(yù)訂餐桌，再從別家餐廳點菜，為餐廳服務(wù)和菜品分別付費。假如3D打印機得到普及，設(shè)計和制造就可能脫鉤，消費者可以單獨為數(shù)字設(shè)計圖付費。
特謝拉認為，脫鉤是一種由客戶驅(qū)動的現(xiàn)象，自下而上、而非自上而下地進行。成功的企業(yè)會察覺消費者的口味如何變化，為此，它們除了要審視自己所在的行業(yè)，還可能需要觀察其他行業(yè)的發(fā)展。例如，它們可借鑒Netflix訂閱模式的成功經(jīng)驗，因為適用于電視節(jié)目的模式也許同樣適用于其他商品和服務(wù)。已經(jīng)有公司定期給顧客遞送襪子或香水，使購買這些商品的行為與逛商場脫鉤。
在位管理者面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是，他們不能單單關(guān)心自己的整體成本是否低于直接競爭對手。只要他們的某個經(jīng)營環(huán)節(jié)效率低下，或者令消費者感到不便，“脫鉤分子”就可能乘虛而入，奪取市場份額。
2020年翻譯資格考試(catti)一級筆譯材料
How Birdwatchers, Others Can Help Migrating Bird Populations
The kinds of birds coming through your neighborhood are probably changing, and so is the timing of their migrations.
Birdwatchers noticing these differences are playing a big part in understanding how climate change and severe weather events are affecting bird populations.
John Rowden is director of community conservation at the National Audubon Society, which aims to protect birds and their environments. He said, “Birders have to be much more alert to when birds are coming through than they used to be, since birds may be coming through much earlier or much later…”
Birdwatchers are increasingly seeing birds in their area that are usually found elsewhere, Rowden says. And, they are seeing fewer of the birds that usually travel through.
“... Just because we’ve seen these birds year after year doesn’t mean they’ll always be there. They are declining in numbers because we’re throwing so many things at them, so we need to do what we can to help them,” Rowden said.考生如果怕自己錯過考試成績查詢的話，可以 免費預(yù)約短信提醒，屆時會以短信的方式提醒大家報名和考試時間。
At least 314 species of American birds are expected to lose 50 percent or more of their range by the end of the century. Those species are listed by the Audubon Society as climate-threatened or endangered, Rowden added.
A United Nations science report issued Monday says 1 million species of plants and animals are at risk of disappearing from Earth.
Scientists who issued the report blamed development that has led to loss of habitat as well as climate change, overfishing, pollution and invasive species.
Environmentalists say there are a few easy steps people can take to help struggling bird populations. These include planting native species, which leads to more native insects for the birds to eat.
The Audubon Society’s Plants for Birds website provides plant suggestions for people in the United States, based on where they live in the country.
During spring and fall migration seasons, people can help migrating birds by keeping outdoor lights turned off and covering reflective surfaces like large windows. People also should make indoor plants less visible to passing birds.
The Audubon Society also runs a community science program called Climate Watch. It aims to collect data on how bird ranges – or the places they are found – are changing. Rowden says the program asks people to count the numbers of each species they see. The program goes from May 15 to June 15.
Geoff LeBaron, director of the Christmas Bird Count at the National Audubon Society, says he has seen the effects of climate change firsthand.
“I’ve been a birder since I was a little kid,” he said. “It’s clear that climate change is affecting and will continue to affect birds on a global scale, and it’s a question of whether or not they can adapt to what the climate is throwing at them.”
Record droughts, floods, hurricanes and more are having a major effect, he said. Hurricanes usually happen during migration season, LeBaron noted. They have an especially big effect on sea birds, whose migration paths might change by thousands of kilometers as a result.
Experts say sea birds and grasslands birds are most at risk from climate disasters. Birds known as aerial insectivores are also at risk because the insects they eat are getting harder to find.
鳥類觀察者和其他人該如何幫助鳥類遷徙
從你附近飛過的鳥類種類可能在一直變化，它們遷徙的時間也在改變。
鳥類觀察者注意到這些差異可能對于他們理解氣候變化以及惡劣天氣事件如何影響鳥類種群方面發(fā)揮了重要的作用。
約翰·羅登是美國國家奧杜邦協(xié)會的社區(qū)保護主任，該協(xié)會旨在保護鳥類及其生存環(huán)境。他說:“觀鳥者必須比以往更加警惕鳥類何時會飛來，因為鳥類可能來得更早，也可能來得更晚……”
羅登說，鳥類觀察者越來越多地發(fā)現(xiàn)他們的地區(qū)經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)其他地區(qū)的鳥類。此外，該地區(qū)經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)的鳥類反而更少了。
“……我們年復(fù)一年地看到這些鳥并不意味著它們就會一直出現(xiàn)在那里。它們的數(shù)量正在下降，因為我們向它們?nèi)恿四敲炊鄸|西，所以我們需要盡我們所能來幫助它們?！?/p>
到本世紀末，預(yù)計至少有314種美國鳥類將失去50%甚至更多的活動范圍。羅登補充說，這些鳥類被奧杜邦協(xié)會列入受氣候威脅或瀕危的物種。
周一，聯(lián)合國發(fā)表的一份科學(xué)報告表示，有100萬種動植物面臨從地球上消失的危險。
發(fā)布該報告的科學(xué)家指責稱，發(fā)展導(dǎo)致棲息地喪失、氣候變化、過度捕撈、污染和物種入侵。
環(huán)保人士表示，人們可以采取一些簡單的措施來幫助苦苦掙扎的鳥類種群。這些措施包括種植當?shù)匚锓N以產(chǎn)生更多的當?shù)乩ハx供鳥類食用。
奧杜邦鳥類協(xié)會的“鳥類可食用植物”網(wǎng)站為居住在美國不同地區(qū)的人們提供了植物種植建議。
在春、秋兩個鳥類遷徙的季節(jié)，人們可以通過關(guān)閉戶外燈光和遮蓋大塊反光玻璃等方式幫助鳥類遷徙。人們也需要隱藏室內(nèi)植物，避免路過的鳥類看到。
奧杜邦協(xié)會還進行著一項名為“氣候觀察”的社區(qū)科學(xué)項目。目的是為收集關(guān)于鳥類活動范圍(或它們被發(fā)現(xiàn)的地方)如何變化的數(shù)據(jù)。羅登表示，該項目要求人們記錄所看到的每個種類的數(shù)量。該項目從5月15日持續(xù)到6月15日。
美國奧杜邦協(xié)會的圣誕鳥類統(tǒng)計主任杰夫·萊巴龍說，他親眼目睹了氣候變化所產(chǎn)生的影響。
“我從很小的時候就愛觀察鳥類，”他說?！昂苊黠@，氣候變化正在并將繼續(xù)影響全球范圍內(nèi)的鳥類，問題是鳥類能否適應(yīng)氣候變化給它們帶來的影響。”
他說，創(chuàng)紀錄的干旱、洪水、颶風等也產(chǎn)生重大影響。萊巴龍指出，颶風通常發(fā)生在遷徙的季節(jié)。颶風對海上鳥類的影響特別嚴重，它們的遷徙路線可能因此改變數(shù)千公里。
專家表示，海上的鳥類和草原上的鳥類最容易受到氣候災(zāi)害的威脅?？罩惺诚x的鳥類也處于危險之中，因為它們吃的昆蟲越來越難找到。
2020年翻譯資格考試(catti)一級筆譯材料
Global Impact: Nowhere to Hide
全球影響：無處躲藏
China’s newest export is its financial system, for good and for ill
中國最新的出口產(chǎn)品是其金融體系，有好也有壞
Some of the finest infrastructure to be found between Singapore and Dubai lies in the south of Sri Lanka, close to the crashing waves of the Indian Ocean. Broad highways connect a deep-sea harbour to a silvery, angular convention centre and, further inland, to an elegant airport terminal with vaulted wooden ceilings. But it does not take long for visitors to see that something is awry. Wild peacocks scampering across the roads easily outnumber the people using the state-of-the-art facilities. The port sees less than a ship per day and the airport, which has been open for three years, no longer offers regular flights. The Sri Lankan government’s debt on the complex runs to at least $1.5 billion, or nearly 2% of the country’s GDP. And almost all of that is owed to Chinese banks.
新加坡與迪拜之間最好的一些基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施位于斯里蘭卡南部，瀕臨白浪滔滔的印度洋。寬闊的高速公路連接著這里的深水港、多角形銀色會展中心，以及離海邊更遠一些的有木質(zhì)拱頂、風格優(yōu)雅的機場候機樓。但游客很快就會發(fā)現(xiàn)哪里不對勁。穿過馬路的野生孔雀明顯多過使用這些先進設(shè)施的人;港口一天也不一定會停靠一艘船;機場已經(jīng)啟用三年，現(xiàn)在都沒有定期航班了。斯里蘭卡政府為修建這些基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施所欠的債務(wù)總計至少15億美元，相當于全國GDP的近2%。其中大部分貸款都來自中資銀行。
Sri Lankan officials are careful not to blame China for the mess. It was the previous president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, who wanted all these facilities built near his home town of Hambantota, even though there was little commercial justification for them. But privately they feel that the lender must also bear responsibility. Were it not for Chinese banks extending vast amounts of credit with minimal safeguards, Sri Lanka would never have been saddled with these debts. Moreover, the Chinese banks charged unusually high interest rates on at least some of the loans. The term “odious lending” comes to mind, says a Sri Lankan government adviser. Partly because of its debt load and big looming repayments, Sri Lanka turned to the International Monetary Fund this year for a bail-out.
面對這個爛攤子，斯里蘭卡官員小心翼翼地不去歸罪于中國。把這些設(shè)施修建在靠近漢班托塔是斯里蘭卡前總統(tǒng)馬欣達·拉賈帕克薩的主意，這個決定沒有什么商業(yè)理由，只因為漢班托塔是他的家鄉(xiāng)。不過私底下，官員們覺得貸款方也必須要負一定責任，如果不是中資銀行在還款保障極低的情況下仍放出大量貸款，斯里蘭卡根本不會背上沉重的債務(wù)。而且，至少有一部分中資銀行貸款的利息率高得異乎尋常。一位斯里蘭卡政府的顧問說，這不禁讓人想到“惡債”一詞。斯里蘭卡今年向國際貨幣基金組織尋求緊急救助，原因之一就是債務(wù)負擔太重，而且大量債務(wù)即將到期。
Tracking the ways in which the Chinese financial system affects the global financial system is far from straightforward. Since China is the world’s biggest trading nation, the fate of its economy clearly affects most of the globe. The slowdown in its construction industry has already battered commodity exporters from Mongolia to Brazil. But direct financial connections between China and the rest of the world are much more limited. In China, itself regulations cap the involvement of foreign institutions, and Chinese banks, insurers and brokerages have been remarkably diffident about expanding abroad. Nevertheless, the promise and the problems of China’s financial sector are rippling beyond its borders.
要搞清楚中國金融系統(tǒng)如何影響全球金融體系并非易事。中國是世界最大的貿(mào)易國，其經(jīng)濟命運自然會影響世界上大部分地區(qū)。從蒙古到巴西，大宗商品出口國都已受到中國建筑業(yè)發(fā)展減速的沉重打擊。但中國和其他國家之間的直接金融聯(lián)系則要少得多。在國內(nèi)，監(jiān)管對境外金融機構(gòu)的參與有種.種限制，中資銀行、保險公司和證券公司對于境外拓展也顯得十分畏首畏尾。然而，中國金融業(yè)的承諾和問題，其影響都超越了中國國界。
As Sri Lanka can attest, one crucial, if often overlooked, linkage is China’s funding for other emerging markets. At the end of last year, the combined overseas loan book of China’s two leading development lenders, China Development Bank and Export-Import Bank of China, reached $550 billion, a multiple of the World Bank’s roughly $150 billion. Some of that lending has gone to Chinese firms doing business abroad, but the bulk has been for governments and companies in developing countries.
中國與全球金融業(yè)之間的一個極端重要而又常常被忽略的聯(lián)系，就是中國為其他新興市場提供貸款，斯里蘭卡即為一個明證。去年年底，中國兩大開發(fā)銀行——國家開發(fā)銀行和中國進出口銀行——海外貸款總額合計達到5500億美元，數(shù)倍于世界銀行的約1500億美元。有些貸款流向在海外開展業(yè)務(wù)的中國公司，但大部分都是借給了發(fā)展中國家的政府和企業(yè)。
A great deal?
劃算嗎?
It might seem churlish to criticise China for lending to poor countries, but loans are not gifts. The recipients have to repay them, so it is fair to ask whether they are getting a good deal. The evidence is mixed. China’s money has built many useful things, including power stations, roads, dams and railways across Africa, Latin America and South Asia. It has also offered a lifeline to emerging markets suffering capital outflows. Last year, China’s two development banks lent $29 billion to hard-hit Latin American governments, three times as much as in 2014, according to the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think-tank.
批評中國向貧窮國家貸款似乎顯得有點無禮，但貸款不是贈款，拿了錢是要還的，所以問清楚這錢借得是否劃算也正當合理。然而這個問題不好回答。中國的資金幫助非洲、拉丁美洲和南亞諸國修建了發(fā)電廠、道路、水壩和鐵路等有用設(shè)施，也是遭受資本外流之苦的新興市場的救命稻草。華盛頓智庫美洲國家對話組織的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年中國的兩大開發(fā)銀行向遭受重創(chuàng)的拉美各國政府貸款290億美元，是2014年的3倍。
But Chinese money is part of what got these countries into trouble in the first place. Its development banks have exported some of the worst excesses of the Chinese financial system: lending out huge dollops of cash with few strings attached, other than that Chinese contractors must do much of the construction. In the case of the airport and port in southern Sri Lanka, officials say there was insufficient analysis of their viability and no competitive bidding. “Would it have been bad to insist on these conditions? These are things we needed to do,” says Harsha de Silva, a critic of the original loans who is now deputy foreign minister. Allegations of corruption and waste have also followed Chinese loans around from Pakistan to Angola, Ecuador and Venezuela.
不過，中國的貸款也是這些國家當初陷入困境的原因之一。其開發(fā)銀行向外輸出的是中國金融系統(tǒng)中嚴重過剩的資金：大筆的現(xiàn)金貸款，除了要求大部分的建設(shè)工程由中國企業(yè)承包以外，幾乎沒什么附加條件。以斯里蘭卡南部的機場和港口為例，政府官員說這兩個項目沒有進行充分的可行性分析，也沒有競爭性招標。現(xiàn)任斯里蘭卡外交部副部長的哈沙德?席爾瓦對當初的貸款持批評態(tài)度，“當初堅持這些要求難道不對嗎?這些本來就是我們該做的。”從巴基斯坦到安哥拉，從厄瓜多爾到委內(nèi)瑞拉，中國貸款所到之處，對當?shù)卣瘮『屠速M的指控如影隨形。 There are some signs that China wants to mend its ways. It has started being tougher on loan recipients, and is hoping to emulate the World Bank’s best practices in running the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a multilateral lender it established last year. Yet the legacy of the past decade is that a number of poor countries are now deeply in debt to China, sometimes with little to show for it. China, to its credit, has so far been accommodating to those in trouble, extending maturities and providing new financing. But if China itself hits the skids and loses more foreign-currency reserves, it will have fewer dollars to spare for others. That would make the outlook for those already in hock to China even grimmer.
有跡象表明，中國意欲改變貸款方式。先是對貸款對象國提出了更嚴格的要求，同時也希望效仿世行的最佳實踐來管理亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資銀行——亞投行是中國去年成立一個多邊貸款機構(gòu)。然而過去十年的遺留問題在于，數(shù)個向中國借款的窮國已經(jīng)債臺高筑，而且有時拿到貸款卻毫無建樹。值得贊揚的是，到目前為止，中國對那些深陷泥潭的國家還算義氣，延長了債務(wù)期限，并提供新資金。但是如果中國遇上麻煩，有更多的外匯儲備流失，能給別國用的美元就不多了。果真如此，已經(jīng)深陷中國債務(wù)泥潭的國家的前景就將更加暗淡。Tiny, but not for long
影響雖小，卻不會太久
For advanced economies, the picture looks very different. Chinese banks have only a minor presence there, so the dangers of a China-led credit crunch are much smaller. At the end of last year overseas loans by Chinese commercial banks totalled just $410 billion, less than half the loan portfolio of Wells Fargo, America’s largest bank by market value. Chinese banks have been wary about making international acquisitions after ill-timed investments by China Investment Corp, a sovereign-wealth fund, just before the global financial crisis. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s $690m purchase of the London-based trading unit of South Africa’s Standard Bank is one of the most ambitious overseas forays by a Chinese bank ever – yet it is worth less than 0.03% of ICBC’s assets.
對發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體來說，情況則大為不同。中資銀行在那些國家的影響力不大，所以中國引發(fā)信貸危機的危險要小得多。去年年底，中國商業(yè)銀行海外貸款總計只有4100億美元，還不及富國銀行(美國市值最大的銀行)貸款組合的一半。全球金融危機前夕，主權(quán)財富基金中國投資有限責任公司(簡稱中投)的投資時機失當，此后中資銀行對于跨國并購態(tài)度謹慎。中國工商銀行以6.9億美元收購南非標準銀行位于倫敦的國際市場業(yè)務(wù)部，已是中資銀行最大規(guī)模的海外收購了。盡管如此，這一并購金額也還不到工行資產(chǎn)的0.03%。
Whatever happens to the domestic economy, it seems inevitable that Chinese financial institutions will increase their weight in developed markets in the coming years. If growth in China holds up well, they will have even more cash to deploy abroad; if their own economy stumbles, they will have an extra incentive to look abroad. For now, less than 3% of Chinese banks’ 102 trillion yuan in loans are in foreign currencies. Just serving Chinese companies as they venture abroad will ensure a big increase: they have accounted for nearly a third of all global cross-border M&A deals so far this year, according to Dealogic. Of Chinese insurers’ 13 trillion yuan in assets, a mere 2% are currently overseas. Insurers are starting to grab headlines with their overseas investments, such as Ping An’s acquisition of the Lloyd’s building, a London landmark, and Anbang’s bid for Starwood Hotels & Resorts, owner of the Sheraton and Westin brands. More are sure to follow.
未來，不管國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟如何發(fā)展，中國金融機構(gòu)看似將不可避免地在發(fā)達國家市場上增加影響力。如果中國能持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長，它們就會有更多現(xiàn)金配置于海外;如果中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展受挫，它們則更有動力放眼海外。目前中資銀行102萬億元貸款總額中只有不到3%是外匯貸款。研究機構(gòu)Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)顯示：今年到目前為止，全球跨境并購近三分之一都由走出去的中國企業(yè)完成，僅為這些企業(yè)提供貸款就一定會大幅增加外匯貸款的比重。中資保險公司13萬億元的資產(chǎn)中，海外資產(chǎn)目前只占2%。它們在海外的投資開始占據(jù)新聞頭條，例如平安收購倫敦地標建筑勞埃德大廈，安邦競購喜達屋酒店及度假村集團(旗下?lián)碛邢瞾淼?、威斯汀等酒店品?。更多交易必將接踵而來。
In some ways, this is to be welcomed. Over the past 15 years China has transformed earnings from its trade surplus into foreign-exchange reserves, most of which in turn were stashed away in American government bonds, which are safe but low-yielding. Foreign investment and overseas acquisitions, if well managed, are a more productive use of China’s savings.
某種程度上來說這是好事。在過去15年里，中國把從貿(mào)易順差得來的收入轉(zhuǎn)為外匯儲備，其中大部分都用于購買美國國債，安全但收益率低。如果管理得當，海外投資和跨境并購能更有效地利用中國的儲蓄。
Yet these outbound forays also harbour serious dangers. In the vanguard are state-owned enterprises, many of which are already leveraged to the hilt at home. Take ChemChina, a chemicals giant that bid $44 billion for Syngenta, a Swiss rival, earlier this year. If approved, this will be China’s biggest overseas takeover in history. Yet ChemChina’s debt-to-equity ratio is 234%; Syngenta’s is a much more conservative 44%.
然而這些跨境并購也隱含著嚴重的風險。打頭陣的都是國企，其中很多企業(yè)的國內(nèi)杠桿已達高位。以年初化工巨頭中國化工競購其瑞士競購對手先正達為例，如果獲批，將成為中國有史以來最大的跨境收購案。然而中國化工的負債權(quán)益比高達234%，而先正達只有44%，相對要保守得多。
In normal circumstances, banks might be reluctant to fund companies already carrying so much debt. But Chinese banks are only too willing to back SOEs, especially when international expansion is part of their national mission. Foreign banks, too, assume that government support for SOEs is rock-solid. These deals are spreading China Inc’s indebtedness to foreign markets; the balance-sheets of its acquisition targets will become much more vulnerable to a downturn in growth.
在正常情況下，銀行可能不愿放貸給債務(wù)水平已經(jīng)很高的企業(yè)。但中資銀行卻十分樂于支持國企走出去，尤其是在海外擴張成為一項國家使命的時候。外資銀行也認為政府對國企的支持堅如磐石。這些并購案正將中國企業(yè)的負債推向海外市場;一旦增長下滑，收購目標的資產(chǎn)負債表將更為脆弱。
Mercifully, direct global exposure to the dangers within China’s financial system is still small for now. That is thanks in large part to a regulatory wall around the economy: foreigners can own no more than 20% of local banks, and can invest in stocks and banks only through strictly controlled channels. As a result, foreign investors own just around 1% of the Chinese stock market and even less of the bond market.
萬幸的是，中國金融體系內(nèi)的危險對全球的直接影響目前還很小。這主要是歸功于中國經(jīng)濟監(jiān)管對外資的限制：外資在本地銀行持股不得超過20%，且只有通過嚴格管控的渠道才能投資股票和銀行。因此，海外投資者在中國股票市場的份額只有1%，債券市場還要更少。
International banks, for their part, account for only 1.5% of total commercial bank assets in China. More than half of those assets are concentrated in the hands of three institutions: HSBC, Standard Chartered and Singapore’s OCBC Wing Hang, according to KPMG. Several others, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citi, previously had large investments in Chinese banks but sold them for chunky profits in recent years.
外資銀行資產(chǎn)僅占中國商業(yè)銀行總資產(chǎn)的1.5%。據(jù)畢馬威的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，其中半數(shù)以上的資產(chǎn)集中在三家銀行：匯豐、渣打和新加坡的華僑永亨銀行。另外幾家，包括高盛、美國銀行和花旗，曾在中資銀行有大筆投資，但是近年來全部退出，獲利頗豐。
For foreign banks with big operations in China, its slowdown clearly poses risks. Standard Chartered got a taste of that in 2014, when it set aside about $175m to cover losses incurred in lending to a Chinese trading company, which had pledged the same stockpile of metals as collateral many times over to different banks. That scandal also dragged in Citi, HSBC and others. But they have generally been careful, partly because they have no alternative. Chinese banks, with their deeper local connections and rapid lending, have scooped up the vast majority of domestic clients, including the most indebted ones. Foreign banks, by and large, still serve international companies, which are among the safest borrowers in China. “The joy of being a drop in the ocean is that you can choose your drop in the ocean,” jokes one foreign veteran.
對于在中國業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模較大的外資銀行來說，中國經(jīng)濟放緩無疑帶來了風險。渣打銀行在2014年就吃了苦頭。當時渣打向一家中國貿(mào)易公司發(fā)放了貸款，而這家公司向多家銀行多次抵押同一批金屬，最終渣打損失了1.75億美元。這一案件還牽涉到了花旗、匯豐等其他銀行，不過總體來說，外資銀行在中國還是很謹慎的，原因之一是它們別無選擇。中資銀行與本地客戶關(guān)系深厚，放貸速度快，手中已握有絕大部分的國內(nèi)客戶，包括債務(wù)最沉重的客戶。外資銀行總體來說仍然主要服務(wù)國際公司，而它們在中國也是最穩(wěn)妥的客戶。一位資深外籍銀行人士開玩笑說：“作為九牛之一毛的好處就在于你可以選擇當哪根毛?！?/p>
The next few years could bring dramatic changes on multiple fronts. Regulators have opened new channels for foreigners to invest in stocks, creating a link between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges; another link to the Shenzhen exchange is also in the works. As part of making the yuan a more global currency, China is also opening its bond market to institutional investors.
未來幾年多個方面都可能會發(fā)生巨變。監(jiān)管當局已為外資投資股票開放了新渠道，在上海證交所和香港證交所之間建立了互通機制;深交所也在準備實現(xiàn)另外一個互通機制。為了讓人民幣更加國際化，中國還向海外機構(gòu)投資者開放了其債券市場。
And some foreign banks want a bigger foothold, believing that China’s growth prospects outweigh its risks. International bank lending to Chinese residents in mid-2015 amounted to $1.2 trillion, close to an all-time high and more than three times the 2010 figure, according to the Bank for International Settlements. HSBC, the biggest foreign bank in China, considered shifting its global headquarters to Hong Kong earlier this year, though in the end stayed put in London. Even those firms that want to insulate themselves from China will find it difficult to resist the gravitational pull of the world’s second-largest economy. “For serious investors, it’s no longer optional to be here,” says Eugene Qian, China head for UBS.
一些外資銀行想要擴大自己的立足之地，認為中國經(jīng)濟成功發(fā)展的機會大于風險。國際清算銀行的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截止2015年中，外資銀行對中國居民的貸款高達1.2萬億美元，接近歷史最高水平，是2010年的三倍多。中國最大的外資銀行匯豐今年年初還曾考慮將其全球總部搬至香港，不過最后還是留在了倫敦。即使是那些希望能跟中國保持距離的公司也將難擋世界第二大經(jīng)濟體的巨大吸引力。瑞銀中國區(qū)總裁錢于軍說：“對嚴肅的投資者來說，進入中國是必然的選擇。
Many are still holding off, believing that Chinese growth and the yuan have further to fall. But it is only a matter of time before major benchmarks such as the MSCI world equity index start to incorporate Chinese stocks and bonds. As that happens, funds from university endowments in California to pension providers in Sweden will follow their lead, adding onshore Chinese assets to their portfolios. Based on their current trajectory, China’s capital markets could be the world’s biggest within a decade. “Investors in America won’t be able to go to bed without knowing where China is trading,” says Luke Spajic of the Asian arm of Pimco, a giant fund manager. The pace may vary but the trend seems inexorable: Chinese and global financial systems are becoming intertwined. With each passing year, China’s problems will increasingly be the world’s problems.
很多投資者還在觀望，認為中國經(jīng)濟和人民幣還有下行的空間。然而，MSCI世界股權(quán)指數(shù)等主要基準指數(shù)納入中國的股票和債券是遲早的事。到那時，從美國加州的大學(xué)捐贈基金到瑞典的養(yǎng)老基金，各類基金都會緊隨其后，將中國國內(nèi)資產(chǎn)納入其投資組合?；谀壳暗陌l(fā)展趨勢，中國資本市場的規(guī)模有可能在十年內(nèi)躍居世界首位。基金管理巨頭太平洋投資管理公司亞洲部門的盧克·斯帕吉齊說：“美國的投資者如果不知道中國的投資走勢，就會睡不著覺?！卑l(fā)展的步伐或快或慢，但趨勢看來不可扭轉(zhuǎn)：中國和世界的金融體系正漸漸交織在一起。每過一年，中國的問題都將日益成為世界的問題。
2020年翻譯資格考試(catti)一級筆譯材料分享相關(guān)文章：
★ 英語學(xué)習(xí)
